R U OK hun?
Nope, us neither. If you regard yourself as a feminist, which we like to assume that, as Restless readers, you do, we think it’s fairly safe to say you’ve got a few questions right now. You’ve probably let loose a few expletives since 10pm. Perhaps a few tears. Us too.
But, let’s take a breath. Currently, we’re looking at exit polls. A survey of a five figure sum of people at 144 polling stations, out of a potential electorate of more than 66million at around 55 thousand stations. It’s far from a done deal. Nonetheless, recent polls have been accurate with a margin of error of under 20 seats. If tonight’s poll is as on the money as those, it’s clear Boris Johnson is headed for a majority greater than even his staunchest followers would have believed.
Predictions of a Tory majority of 86 sit well outside the poll’s usual margin of error, and would represent the Conservative party’s biggest majority since Thatcher’s victory in 1987. Professor Michael Thrasher, who was part of the polling team, told Sky News: “It has been a remarkable day… the Conservatives have been heading for an overall majority all day long, it is just the number has fluctuated down as more Labour voters turned out to vote later on.”
So, if the polls are accurate, what does it really mean? The full implications will play out over the coming days, weeks and months, but there are a few things we can take from tonight’s polls, and hopefully, there are a couple of tiny glimmers of hope…
1. This could lead to greater financial stability, at least in the short-term
Certainly, the markets seem to believe we’re headed for a very black and white result – the pound surged upon the release of tonight’s exit poll, experiencing its biggest rise in more than three years. If there are two certainties in life, death and taxes, a close third is that markets love certainty. While we are far from overjoyed at the prospect of a Tory Government, given its love of a policy that is most punitive for society’s most vulnerable, a strong pound means lower inflation. Whatever way you voted in the Brexit referendum, there’s little question that the government’s appalling handling of the separation process has weakened the pound and thus left us all more vulnerable to inflation. The markets don’t care if the polls are red or blue, they care about decisiveness. Certainty is good, and should at least keep markets, and in turn, household expenditure, steady in the short-term. A strong pound is also good news if you’re planning on running away. We hear Southern Europe is lovely at this time of year…
2. A majority could mean a smoother Brexit
It’s no secret that Britain’s younger voters chose overwhelmingly to remain in the EU, and tonight’s result will thus be devastating. If we want to look for silver linings though, there is at least one to be found in a large Conservative majority and it is, oxymoronically, in the fact that it gives Boris Johnson a much stronger mandate. Not only will Europe have to negotiate in a way it did not have to when the PM arguably had a very weak hand as an unelected leader with a minority government, it also, positively, removes the balance of power from the party’s more extreme, Eurosceptic fringes. The Brexit Party is predicted to get no seats, so there are fewer loud, no deal backers in play. Europe will have to box clever, and that should hopefully mean a new openness to trade negotiations.
3. It looks as though we have one female leader in a position of strength
It’s easy to forget Scotland, but the same exit poll that shows a huge Conservative majority shows an absolute wash of SNP yellow sweeping across Scotland. Leader Nicola Sturgeon and her party are staunchly anti-Brexit, liberal, pro-immigration, and if they win the predicted 55 seats out of 59, that leaves them in a position that can’t be ignored. One caveat here is that Scotland has a high number of very marginal seats, so the polls need to be taken with an even larger pinch of salt there than in England and Wales. However, there’s little question that it would give her party the mandate to push for the second independence referendum they so deeply crave, and that could have huge repercussions for the state of British democracy. Scotland is small, but it shouts loudly, and at this moment, we’ll take all the loud liberal voices we can get.
4. Labour will need to regroup under a new boss
Whether you’re a Corbyn fan or not, there’s little question that if these exit polls play out in reality, he’ll have very little choice but to step down. Under his leadership, the party has been shamed by antisemitism claims and many commentators and, indeed, many of his own MPs, were deeply critical of his refusal to take a stance on Europe, a position that now looks to have been deeply unattractive to voters. If Boris Johnson is to be a majority Prime Minister, a strong opposition will be needed, and while there’s little question this result, if played out, will be utterly devastating for the Labour party, it could also be the opportunity the party so desperately needs to wipe the slate clean and start afresh with a bold new leader. We can’t be the only people who were dreaming of a Jess Phillips’ leadership bid long before December 12…
5. The youthquake didn’t happen – is it time for a youthquake?
We heard the predictions, and our social media feeds certainly seemed to suggest we could be on the brink of another youthquake. If the exit polls play out, it’s clear it didn’t happen. It will now. Younger voters will need to take some responsibility for this result, and if there is to be one silver lining, surely it must be the politicisation of those who, shouting into the echo chambers of their own social media feeds, believed that others would carry home a liberal government for them. When people are backed into a corner, they fight back. We know that younger voters are more likely to vote Lib Dem, Green or Labour – this result will not make that demographic happy. They will lick their wounds. But if we are lucky, they will never reject the opportunity to vote again. And if we can take one positive from this whole experience, a politicised youth would certainly not be a negligible one.
